Saudi Arabia aims to turn its arid capital into a desert oasis, though the ambitious project may encounter issues that have plagued the kingdom’s other sustainability-focused initiatives.

Nicknamed “Green Riyadh,” the urban forestation effort aims to improve the air quality and reduce the temperature in the capital. Characteristic of the kingdom’s recent efforts at urban regeneration, the big-budget transformation of Riyadh into a verdant metropolis would be a significant victory for Prince Salman’s Vision 2030.

Part of the “Quality of Life” schemes comprising Vision 2030, Green Riyadh was one of four “giga projects” launched by King Salman bin Abdulaziz in March 2019.

Alongside King Salman Park, Sports Boulevard, and Riyadh Art, the four Riyadh projects are projected to cost around 86 billion Saudi riyals, or 23 billion dollars.

According to the website of the Riyadh Royal Commission, Green Riyadh is “one of the most ambitious urban forestation projects in the world.”

Central to Green Riyadh are afforestation efforts, which involve planting 7.5 million trees of around 100 different species across the capital’s gardens, parks, mosques, schools, and streets by 2030.

The trees will be kept healthy using recycled water from an irrigation network, the development of which will require a new water treatment network.

If successful, its planners estimate that Riyadh’s new foliage will multiply the city’s per capita green space from 1.7 to 28 miles squared and increase total green coverage of the capital from 1.5 per cent to 9 per cent.

Leading to improved air quality, increased oxygen rates, a 6% reduction in Riyadh’s CO2 concentration, and up to a 15 degree Celsius drop in temperature in the city’s most heavily forested locations, Saudi Arabia believes this will “help residents live happier, healthier, and more sustainable lives.”

This would go toward fulfilling a central goal of the Saudi Vision 2030: promoting Riyadh to one of the 100 most livable cities by the end of the decade.

According to the Vision 2030 website, Green Riyadh “is also expected to generate significant return on investment by 2030 through healthcare cost savings, increased real estate value, and the use of treated wastewater for irrigation.”

It is hoped Green Riyadh will generate more than $19 billion in economic returns by 2030.

Newsweek has contacted the Royal Commission for Riyadh City by email regarding the progress of “Green Riyadh.”

With its professed focus on sustainability and citizen welfare, Green Riyadh is a quintessential example of the projects included in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Unveiled in 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Vision 2030 is the most prominent of several ambitious plans by Middle Eastern states, aimed at reducing their economic dependence on oil revenues, diversifying the economy, and inaugurating broadscale developments of public services.

However, other projects which comprise this vision – most notably the Neom megacity in the Saudi desert – have failed to live up to expectations.

Work on Neom has already stalled due to rising costs and engineering issues, caused by the difficulties of constructing a city hoped to host more than eight million people in the middle of a desert.

It may be that Green Riyadh, like Neom or The Line, will see Saudi Arabia’s ambitious objectives curtailed by poor assessments of the project’s feasibility.

According to a September 2023 paper from King Abdulaziz University’s architecture faculty, while the Green Riyadh project has seen a “slight increase” in the city’s vegetation index, the planted trees “have not thrived as expected.”

“This indicates the potential challenges in sustaining green initiatives in arid environments like Riyadh or perhaps signifies the potential discrepancy between planting trees and their survival or long-term maintenance,” the report said.