April 24th, 2025
Via China Water Risk, analysis of which CK Hutchison ports are vulnerable to sea level rise riks, and if ports in the Americas are more vulnerable than in Europe:
- 84% of the 43 CK Hutchison ports are vulnerable to just 1m of sea level rise which given current high emissions could happen in the next 3-4 decades.
- CK group likely knows its ports face very high coastal threats and may be selling vulnerable assets before the market prices in these threats
- Adaptation costs must be factored in especially when they could be hundreds of million to more than a billion per port for 1m of sea level rise
President Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs triggered a global market meltdown but few realise that the global ice meltdown could disrupt the BlackRock and Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) Consortium’s proposed acquisition of CK Hutchison’s 43 global ports. While Trump’s pause on most tariffs can quickly allay global market meltdowns, it’s not so easy with ice which will continue to meltdown unless we dramatically cut emissions.
Indeed, we have just released, together with leading ice experts & institutes, a “13-Factsheet Guide to “Stop the Melt” to slow down rapid sea level rise caused by accelerated ice melt. Since there’s no negotiating with the melting point of ice, we thought Larry Fink should know the real risks before he buys.
BlackRock should have carried out stress tests before offering to buy 43 of CK Hutchison ports
Larry Fink’s 2021 letter to CEOs said that “No issue ranks higher than climate change on our clients’ lists of priorities”. If that was the case, as port infrastructure is coastal and will feel the brunt of fast rising seas, his team should have carried out climate stress tests before offering to buy 43 ports of CK Hutchison located in 23 countries for US$22.8bn.
We decided to take a look ourselves and did a quick analysis to see how many of the 43 ports would be vulnerable to 1m of sea level rise which is possible by 2070 if current high emissions were to continue.
We encountered some astonishing numbers and laid down some “cool facts” for BlackRock to chew on while conducting due diligence in our new “Ice Cold Truths Brief on Accelerated Threats” – check out the exposure map.
It is likely CK group may be aware of the very high risks its ports face from coastal threats and may be taking the opportunity to offload vulnerable assets before this gets priced in.
Adaptation costs must be factored in especially when they could be hundreds of million to more than a billion per port for 1m of SLR
So, Larry Fink should think before he buys the 43 ports for US$22.8bn because 36 of them are vulnerable to 1m of sea level rise. Adaptation costs must be factored in especially when they could be hundreds of million to more than a billion per port for 1m of sea level rise, which given current high emissions could happen in the next 3-4 decades.
Which ports are at risk? Are ports in the America’s more vulnerable than Europe’s? What about those in the Middle East? It’s all in the brief – take a look.
'Black Swans' are highly improbable events that come as a surprise, have major disruptive effects, and that are often rationalized after the fact as if they had been predictable to begin with. In our rapidly warming world, such events are occurring ever more frequently and include wildfires, floods, extreme heat, and drought.
'Green Shoots' is a term used to describe signs of economic recovery or positive data during a downturn. It references a period of growth and recovery, when plants start to show signs of health and life, and, therefore, has been employed as a metaphor for a recovering economy.
It is my hope that Black Swans / Green Shoots will help readers understand both climate-activated risk and opportunity so that you may invest in, advise, or lead organizations in the context of increasing pressures of global urbanization, resource scarcity, and perils relating to climate change. I believe that the tools of business and finance can help individuals, businesses, and global society make informed choices about who and what to protect, and I hope that this blog provides some insight into the policy and private sector tools used to assess investments in resilient reinforcement, response, or recovery.