July 20th, 2024
Via Medium, commentary on some of the safest places in the U.S. from extreme weather:
Screenshot of U.S. map created by author of safe places to live away from natural disasters
Well, the time has come.
After decades of sh*tting on the planet, Mother Earth has finally had enough. Just the other day I was lurking in a finance subreddit where members were talking about the high cost of insuring homes. California and Florida may become uninhabitable, not because of an immediate natural threat, but simply because insurance companies are leaving the states, refusing to insure any properties. Only the super-rich (or super-irresponsible) will be able to buy or build a home and not have it insured — footing the entire bill if their home gets hit by lightning, burns in a wildfire, or has its roof ripped off from strong winds.
What many don’t know, The Lone Star State, Texas, may soon be next on the list where insurance companies start pulling out. It has the unenviable position of having over 300 miles of open Gulf shoreline to the south, and over 600 miles of shared border with Oklahoma to the north. That’s the longest border between any two states. That means yearly hurricanes coming through places like Galveston (near Houston) and wicked tornadoes coming down from the central United States (oft called Tornado Alley).
While my personal experiences are just a data point of one, I strongly feel that natural disasters, their frequency, and severity, are on the uptick having lived all over the United States. Yet, people on the Internet will argue conspiracy theories, lack of data, or simply that easier access to news is why there seems to be more disasters when there really aren’t.
Like many end-of-world movies, you will have people denying reality right up to the minute their body gets swept away in a flood.
While I am far from being a prepper, I am not going to keep throwing money on a new roof every 2 years because of constant hurricanes. And it’s not just housing; even if you’re a perfect driver, when hundreds of cars in your city get flood damage, your rates will go up with everyone else.
The only thing you can do is live in a low-cost of living area and minimize the number of material things in your life that can be damaged. This includes buying a property that is cheaper to build and maintain. Think a one-story home that’s at one of the highest elevation points in your locale — water will always find the lowest point.
While there are many definitions of low-cost of living area (LCOL), I was curious to see which areas are safest from climate change.
As much as I hate paying for insurance, I can’t help but admire the amount of data these companies crunch each day to hedge their bets and stay profitable. If you want to know which areas of the country have the least drama, surely insurance companies will have the answers.
In May 2023, Rocket Homes made a blog post sharing data they had discovered from various research. In turns out that cities are assigned a risk index which considers things like:
- Wildfires
- Hurricanes
- Tornadoes
- Drought
- Earthquakes
- Hailstorms
- And more…
The header graphic for this article is a map I made plotting the Top 20 cities they listed for safest places from natural disasters.
In the Midwest Region, there was Lima (Ohio), Weston (Wisconsin), Duluth (Minnesota), Appleton (Wisconsin), and Eau Claire (Wisconsin).
In the Northeast Region, there was Bloomsburg (Pennsylvania), State College (Pennsylvania), Glens Falls (New York), Altoona (Pennsylvania), and Burlington (Vermont).
In the South Region, there was Morgantown (West Virginia), Blacksburg (Virginia), Parkersburg (West Virginia), Weirton (West Virginia), and Lynchburg (Virginia).
In the West Region, there was Anchorage (Alaska), Longview (Washington), Mount Vernon (Washington), Bremerton (Washington), and Lewiston (Idaho).
One thing you instantly notice is that the “South” is not really that south. You won’t find cities in North Carolina, South Carolina, or even Georgia. We know why Texas is out and the central part of the country gets too much damn wind.
Earthquakes eliminate much of the West Coast until you get up to Washington state. Or you can go really west to Alaska which is not a bad place if you can tolerate the cold. But what you save on natural disaster insurance, you’ll pay for in a higher cost of living since most everything (food, clothing) in Alaska must be shipped or flown to the state.
Some of these places are the most scenic in the country, not a bad tradeoff if you’re ready for smaller town life.
If I had to move to one of these places tomorrow, I don’t know which I would pick, but I lean towards either Washington or Vermont.
However, if we include a Zombie Apocalypse on the list of natural disasters, I think the last places standing would be somewhere in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and West Virginia.
Conclusion
Picking a place to set roots is one of the hardest decisions you’ll make, especially if you’re factoring in proximity to family, job prospects, and other key points.
A decade ago, people would factor in weather as a minor consideration on where to live — “Oh, Seattle is too rainy for me and my mood.” Today, the decision can be a lot more serious, a matter of life and death. Even the car you drive may one day get you out of a bad storm.
I hope we somehow figure our way out of climate change, but it may be already too late. For those who are retiring, the Florida plan may not be viable in the next few decades. It’s one thing to be displaced from your home when you’re twenty-years-old and single. It’s a lot worse if you’re eighty and in a wheelchair with family in another state. Just ask all the people from Hurricane Katrina.
In the end, we can’t obsess over this stuff. Living a life of worry is no way to live, but we CAN make more informed decisions to try and not laugh in the face of Mother Earth.
'Black Swans' are highly improbable events that come as a surprise, have major disruptive effects, and that are often rationalized after the fact as if they had been predictable to begin with. In our rapidly warming world, such events are occurring ever more frequently and include wildfires, floods, extreme heat, and drought.
'Green Shoots' is a term used to describe signs of economic recovery or positive data during a downturn. It references a period of growth and recovery, when plants start to show signs of health and life, and, therefore, has been employed as a metaphor for a recovering economy.
It is my hope that Black Swans / Green Shoots will help readers understand both climate-activated risk and opportunity so that you may invest in, advise, or lead organizations in the context of increasing pressures of global urbanization, resource scarcity, and perils relating to climate change. I believe that the tools of business and finance can help individuals, businesses, and global society make informed choices about who and what to protect, and I hope that this blog provides some insight into the policy and private sector tools used to assess investments in resilient reinforcement, response, or recovery.